„There is no doubt that the regime in Iran can be deterred, in spite of its deliberate attempts to come across as somewhat irrational and in spite of the “mad mullah” argument. A regime such as the Iranian one, with so few international friends and so much domestic discontent, would not have been able to survive in the Middle East for 26 years and reach this position of power if it was suicidal. Furthermore, it is very unlikely that the Iranians would share technology or weaponry with any of its non-state proxies for the following reasons: first, Iran already possesses chemical and biological weapons, yet it has not shared any such weapons with any of its proxies to date. In fact, an Israeli general told me that many of the rockets shot from southern Lebanon against Israel contained explosives that the Israelis themselves sold to the Iranians in the 1970s, indicating that Iran shared with its proxies the most obsolete weaponry in its arsenal. Second, Iran would be blamed if any state attacked Israel with WMDs, and retaliation would be taken against it. Israel has a second-strike capability and can strike Iran from non-Israeli territory even after it suffers a nuclear attack. The Iranians are well aware of this. Last and most importantly, if Iran were to share nuclear technology with any of its proxies, these organizations would cease to be proxies. The nature of their relationship would fundamentally change in favour of the non-state actors and the Iranians are too Machiavellian to commit such a mistake.“


Source: PARSI, Trita. Is Iran Suicidal?, The Talent, Autumn 2006 (interview by Emiliano Alessandri)

Dr Trita Parsi is the author of the book Treacherous Triangle - The Secret Dealings of Iran, Israel and the United States (Yale University Press, 2007). He has followed Middle East politics for more than a decade, both through work in the field, and through extensive experience on Capitol Hill and the United Nations. His articles on Middle East affairs have been published in the Financial Times, Jane's Intelligence Review, the Globalist, the Jerusalem Post, The Forward, BitterLemons and the Daily Star. He is a frequent commentator on US-Iranian relations and Middle Eastern affairs, and has appeared on BBC World News, PBS NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, CNN (Wolf Blitzer's Situation Room, Anderson Cooper's 360°), CNN International (Your World Today), Al Jazeera, C-Span, NPR, MSNBC, Voice of America and British Channel 4.

For full biographical notes, please see Dr Parsi's website: www.tritaparsi.com