Many wished and believed a decade after the Cold War ended that the future world would be a multipolar one. But at the same time, they also believed that as the overwhelming superpower, United States hegemony would persist for at least another 50 years or even longer.

But recent years have shown that this is not the case.

Affected by economic globalization and the pursuit of profit maximization, and pushed particularly by "borderless information" and "hi-tech's invisible hand", the progress of world multipolarity has not been slow, but has accelerated in recent years. Changes to the international balance of power has taken place faster than some American "futurists" had expected. Who would have ever imagined that China and India could develop at such surprising speed? Who would have thought that China's (official) foreign exchange reserve could jump to be the world's No 1? Who would have thought that Russia would regain its great power status so rapidly?

After the quick rise of "BRIC" (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), 2007 has witnessed the emergence of "VISTA" (Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, and Argentina).

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Some international economic groups have pointed out that the world economy is experiencing its biggest transformation since the Industrial Revolution. Economic centers have been shifting from the developed world to emerging markets in Asia, East Europe, Middle East, and Latin America. BRIC and VISTA are changing the economic structure of the world. These factors are persuasive.

Obviously, it cannot be said at this stage BRIC, VISTA, and some other states have become "polars" of the world. But it is an irreversible trend.

It also cannot be said that the US, which still dominates international markets, has lost its leading position. But it is a fact it is going "down hill", and shrinking in relative power.

These changes, continuous and historical, will significantly affect future international relations.

In another development, regional conflicts and wars are likely to continue and intensify because the nature of the global strategy of the US will remain unchanged.

The US, whether under the Republicans or the Democrats, will continue to be the main antagonist. At the same time, the development of the international and regional situation will not change according to the whims of Washington. Under such circumstances, contradictions and conflicts are virtually inevitable and are likely to crop up from time to time. If dealt with inappropriately, it could likely to lead to wars. Currently, there is no shortage of international hot spots - the "Horn of Africa", Iran-US, and America's deployment of anti-ballistic missiles in some Eastern European countries. The number of such hot spots will tend to increase in the future, a cruel reality that none of us want to see.

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Now some people with ulterior motives are singing a "song of praise" for China on the international platform, and are even advocating "China-US jointly lead the world". Some domestic media and "experts" are also espousing the belief that China is getting ready to "lead the world".


Source (Chinese): Wang Yusheng. Balance of world power is changing rapidly. China Daily 12.28.2007